2025: Space Industry Trends and Events Expected in the New Year

Predictions from SpaceFund

January 2, 2025
By: Meagan Murphy Crawford

Happy New Year from SpaceFund! As we celebrate the start of a new orbit around our closest star, the SpaceFund team is wishing you and yours health, prosperity, and happiness in 2025. 

SpaceFund expects to make many exciting announcements this year as we build on the continuing success of our existing portfolio of 21 space startup investments. We are grateful for the opportunity to continue our vital role in supporting, financing, and directing the most exciting new companies in this rapidly growing industry. 

How We See the Universe

The space industry is gaining more momentum now than at any time in human history. Due to technological improvements, increased government space budgets, and a changing regulatory environment, we expect this trend to accelerate in 2025. Based on our industry-leading market intelligence and our deep network of space company executives, members of the US DoD, and civil space agency contacts, we’ve collated some of our predictions for this coming solar orbit. While no one can predict the future, we do expect great things this year!

What to Watch in 2025 (TL;DR)

• Orbital flights of Starship, with a potential on-orbit fuel transfer demonstration between two Starship vehicles.
• Launch of Blue Origin’s New Glenn (no earlier than January 6).
• More than 20 entities are targeting a maiden launch of a new vehicle in 2025.
• American political changes could have wide-ranging positive impacts on government, civil, and commercial space programs.
• Commercial space activity is now truly global, and we expect more countries to join the industry in 2025 with everything from new national and state-level space programs to new startup space companies.
• Favorable economic winds suggest more space company exits in 2025, which will fuel additional investment in the space startup sector.
• The space industry continues to mature as more middle-market companies see record growth and prepare for exits.
• New financial vehicles and increasing interest from public market investors will continue to fuel acceleration across the sector.

SpaceX
It’s going to be a FUN year for SpaceX. We expect Starship to fly frequently and potentially even carry some customer payloads to orbit before the end of the year. We may see 20 or more launches of Starship before 2025 is over. Falcon launches will continue to increase in cadence due to demand for Starlink as well as government and commercial customers. SpaceX also expects to perform an in-space propellant transfer demonstration using two docked Starships in 2025 – a critical milestone that will allow SpaceX to refuel their Starship HLS vehicle for an uncrewed lunar landing demonstration in the following year.

Launch
Beyond SpaceX, 2025 will see more launches and more new launch vehicles attempt to reach orbit than any year in human history.

• Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket’s first test launch is expected imminently. In 2025, we expect at least a few more test launches of the heavy-lift vehicle.
• Arianespace’s Ariane 6 may have as many as 5 launches in 2025.
• Avio’s Vega-C rocket may fly as many as 4 times in 2025. 

There are MORE THAN 20 entities that are targeting 2025 for the maiden flights of new launch vehicles, and there is no way to know if any of them will be successful, but it will certainly be fun to watch! For the record, no maiden flight of a new rocket has ever made it to orbit, so don’t hold your breath. 🙂

Summary by country:  China (7), USA (4), UK (3), Germany (2), with Europe, Ukraine, Russia, Australia, and India each at 1.

• Blue Origin – New Glenn – USA
• Cyclone-4M – Yuzhnoye – Ukraine
• Gravity-2 – Orienspace – China
• Hera-II – Astraius – UK
• Hyperbola-3 – i-Space – China
• Irtysh – TsSKB Progress – Russia
• Kinetica 2 – CAS Space – China
• Maia – MaiaSpace – Europe
• Neutron – Rocket Lab – USA
• Nova – Stoke Space – USA
• Prime – Orbex – UK
• RFA One – Rocket Factory Augsburg – Germany
• Skyrora XL – Skyrora – UK
• SL1 – HyImpulse – Germany
• Zhuque-3 – LandSpace – China
• Daytona I – Phantom Space Corporation – USA
• Tianlong-3 – Space Pioneer – China
• Pallas-1 – Galactic Energy – China
• Long March 8A – China
• Eris Block 1 – Gilmour Space Technologies – Australia
• Skyroot – Vikram-1 – India

It’s important to note that while the launch industry is ‘sexy’ and garners a lot of eyeballs in the media, it represents less than 10% of the global space market. Back in 2019, SpaceFund predicted that the launch market would be over supplied with too many competing vehicles. 5 years ago, we projected that about 20 companies would survive, and that many of those would be focused on national defense priorities of countries around the world. SpaceFund is currently tracking 183 launch companies in various stages of development. SpaceFund’s investment thesis continues to focus on what’s being launched, with a focus on space infrastructure, including everything from satellite components to space stations.

US Political Changes
American leadership in space under the incoming administration could see some significant improvements for the industry both domestically and abroad.

• Space Exits: Reduced regulations around M&A activity and a more friendly IPO environment could lead to a flurry of space exits. Many stellar space companies are mature enough to exit, and early investors are anxious to return capital to their LPs, so reduced anti-trust regulations and increased investment in the US public markets should encourage space companies to look at exit options. Additionally, Cathie Wood’s ARK Space ETF is making public-market space investing more mainstream and approachable, so there may be significant market demand for these stocks.
• Space Force: As the original sponsor of Space Force, we believe President-elect Trump will continue his support of the new agency, which should lead to a funding increase from Congress. The Space Force has, thus far, been a strong supporter of the commercial space industry and, much like its sister agency, the US Air Force, is a strong supporter of startup companies. As both the scope and budget of this agency increase, we expect a significant uptick in both early-stage grant funding for startups as well as more programs of record and IDIQ contracts.
• NASA: If Jared Isaacsman is approved as the new NASA administrator, we can expect a stronger interest in exploration and a reduction in bloated cost-plus contracts. As a lifelong successful businessman and a twice-flown private astronaut, SpaceFund is excited to see how the new NASA administrator will increase efficiency, improve international cooperation, and drive new excitement about NASA’s mission.
• Regulatory Environment: With Elon Musk’s involvement in the new DOGE initiative, we expect the domestic space regulatory environment to improve significantly, with efficiency increases in the FAA (launch licensing), FCC (spectrum licensing), ITAR (export controls), and CFIUS (foreign investment). In fact, this process has already begun with two important recent announcements: (1) FAA recently announced an important regulatory streamlining decision that it will now accept the federal ranges’ flight safety analysis review for launch providers so that they no longer have to conduct a similar and duplicative review for FAA, and (2) FAA initiated a Part 450 launch license/Launch and Reentry License Requirements Improvement Aerospace Rulemaking Committee (Part 450 SpARC) for the Commercial Space Transportation Industry to hopefully work out the growing pains for the Part 450 licensing process so that it really becomes “streamlined.” 

Geo-Political Environment
Space is becoming increasingly global as more countries and commercial companies enter the new space race. Over 50 countries have now signed the Artemis Accords, which lay out international cooperation on the Moon and beyond. We expect this trend to continue as both defense and commercial opportunities continue to drive industry growth.

• China: We expect China to continue its relentless march toward the Moon and beyond. Expect the debut of new launch vehicles, many new covert satellite missions, and an increasing presence aboard the Chinese space station. Exploration missions to the Moon, Mars, near-Earth asteroids, and Jupiter are all being planned. The Chinese space agency’s near-term focus is on finding water on the Moon ahead of a permanent human colony on the lunar surface.
• Europe: We expect continued leadership by the UK, including government investment through both the UK Space Agency and the Ministry of Defense. We are also seeing positive progress on the commercial front in Luxembourg, Germany, and Italy, with opportunities for ESA to drive commercial space development throughout the region.
• MENA: We expect significant and continued investment by the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Bahrain, Egypt, and Oman are also actively developing their space capabilities with new national space strategies.
• APAC: Outside of China, several major space players are in the Asia Pacific region. India, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan continue to lead in commercial space investment and accomplishments. Expect a first launch attempt from Gilmour Space’s Eris rocket in Australia in early 2025. We may also see a launch of Indian company Skyroot’s much-anticipated Vikram 1 before the end of the year.
• Americas: Outside of the USA, Canada is a dominant player in both the civil and commercial markets. We’re also seeing space hotspots emerge in Argentina, Brazil, and Columbia, and we are hopeful that the Latin American and Caribbean Space Agency will continue to make progress for space programs in the entire region.

We believe that the United States will continue to lead in the space realm for the foreseeable future. Currently, the US Government (USG) is responsible for more than 20% of the direct revenue in the global space industry. While SpaceFund continues to engage with startup companies from around the world, we help all of our portfolio companies access the lucrative USG market for non-dilutive funding and sales.

Investment Environment
Since SpaceFund I was launched in 2019 with few global competitors, we have seen a drastic uptick in new investment firms focused on the rapidly expanding space ecosystem. These firms include early-stage venture capital, later-stage private equity, and now public market ETFs. We expect private and public investment in space companies to increase at an increasing rate in 2025.

• Startup Investment: The space venture capital world is becoming increasingly crowded with many new players and significant growth in fund size among experienced space VCs. This presents both challenges and opportunities as many of the newer firms do not have sophisticated investment theses or due diligence capabilities, meaning capital may be invested in sub-par companies. However, the more experienced firms, some with more than half a decade of space investment experience, are looking to start returning capital to LPs in the next few years and continue to refine their investment theses, market intelligence, and portfolio pipelines to improve returns.
• Middle-Market Investment: Private equity firms such as Redwire and A&E Industrial Partners, as well as roll-up strategies such as Voyager Space (Disclaimer: SpaceFund is an investor in Voyager Space), continue to gain traction and are expected to increase acquisitions and investments in 2025. We also expect an increase in investment from the large aerospace primes and other industrial sectors. We’re also hopeful for the development of a debt market with a specialty in space (Disclaimer: SpaceFund is an investor in Space Finance Company) that can help these mid-market companies grow with an efficient capital stack.
• Public Markets: Many of the space companies that went public during the space SPAC craze of 2022 have underperformed. However, with a projected increase in the traditional IPO market in the coming year, we’re hopeful that many of the high-quality private companies that represent a significant amount of the value in the space ecosystem will find a path to a sustainable public market strategy. While we expect a few public market exits in 2025, however, the 2026 – 2027 timeframe will likely see the most activity. 

Deep Space Missions to Watch in 2025

Deep space is not just for space agencies anymore! While the majority of 2025 missions beyond Earth orbit will be conducted by civil agencies, we’re seeing more and more commercial activity in the cis-lunar realm. 

• China’s Tianwen-2 (ZhengHe): This mission includes an asteroid sample return and a comet probe.
• NASA’s Artemis 2: This mission will send astronauts around the Moon on a ten-day lunar flyby using the Space Launch System.
• NASA’s Europa Clipper: A flyby mission to Europa, one of Jupiter’s moons, to study its icy shell and potential subsurface ocean.
• NASA’s ESCAPADE (Escape and Plasma Acceleration and Dynamics Explorers): Two satellites will investigate how solar wind interacts with Mars’ magnetic environment.
• NASA’s SPHEREx: Scheduled for a February 2025 launch, this mission will map the sky in 3D to study the origins of galaxies and stars.
• NASA’s TRACERS (Tandem Reconnection and Cusp Electrodynamics Reconnaissance Satellites): Aimed at studying solar wind at Earth’s magnetosphere, focusing on magnetic reconnection.
• NASA’s LUCY asteroid mission will fly by asteroid Donald Johanson in April 2025
• NASA’s Lunar Trailblazer – SmallSat mission to study lunar water
• JAXA’s Martian Moons Exploration (MMX): This mission will enter Mars orbit before moving on to Phobos to collect particles.
• JAXA’s M2/Resilience – Launch of JAXA lunar lander and rover
• ESA’s HERA asteroid Didymos/Dimorphos mission will fly by Mars and Deimos in March 2025
• ESA’s Bepi-Colombo will go into orbit around Mercury
• Intuitive Machines’s PRIME 1 – Launch of NASA CLPS lunar lander
• Intuitive Machines PRISM – Launch of lunar lander and rovers
• Griffin’s Mission 1 – Launch of NASA CLPS lunar lander
• Blue Origin’s MK1 Lunar Lander: A “pathfinder” mission to test lunar landing capabilities.

In summary, SpaceFund continues to see market drivers that indicate a favorable investment environment for the space industry both in the US and abroad. We will continue to see commercial space companies push further out into the universe, even as we are expecting exciting developments in Low Earth Orbit.

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